Twitter hasn't hit the mainstream yet and won't for some time

In the hype stakes, Twitter won in 2009. The media was obsessed, the conference season was dominated by 140 characters and every brand was bolting on the inevitable Twitter page. Such was the praise that it was quite refreshing to hear Ricky Gervais at The Golden Globes recently being cynical about the motives of celebrities who tweet.

Clearly the technology is brilliant and the openness of the service is a vision for the future of the web. Even better, for the marketer the ability to capture brand mentions and identify customers in real time is truly exciting. But is it the game-changer we’re led to believe? Are we moving into a real-time future when we all report our lives, thoughts and actions as they happen via Twitter and similar services?

According to Global Web Index research, Twitter didn’t make it out of niche markets last year. Just 5.3% of UK web users were active users (that is, used it on a monthly basis) and by January 2010 this was just 6.5%. This situation was mirrored in other developed web markets, with the US at 6.8% and Japan 8%. More tellingly, the number of lapsed UK users had risen to 13%.

The most active users are 16-24-year-olds (13%) and 25-34-year-olds (11%), versus 1% of 55-64-year-olds, demonstrating a clear age skew common with many forms of networked contribution online. The most active employment category for involvement is advertising and marketing, with 25% being active users. This is followed by people who work in IT and computing, of whom 15% being actively tweeting.

The tricky issue is that, as with all fast-growing, free-to-access services, many people who sign up don’t remain active. In the UK, just 26% of Twitter uses tweet daily, 24% weekly and 50% less frequently. This means the micro-blogging service is supporting millions of accounts with little or no potential to generate revenue.

So what can we expect in 2010? Twitter will still be around, but we believe its growth won’t to take it mainstream as per its stated objective to “become the pulse of the web”. The key finding for marketers is not to assume that Twitter is a must-have in any digital strategy. It can work brilliantly, but you must remember what customers you’ll engage with.

Tom Smith, MD, Global Web Index

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